Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf84…f669 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%42W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$1
tech 14% +$1
politics 14% $0
other 14% +$1
sports 6% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.3% -9.2% 84% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.67 per $1 lost it wins $5.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses42 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage500d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? Jan 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will another party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? Mar 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 06 $17 $0 +2%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 20 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 92d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 94¢ $22 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 182d
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $46 183d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 211d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 241d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 273d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.22 · official $49.22 (match) · 108 history records