Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf83…527b crypto 1347 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%724W / 588L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day272.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$11
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -10.2% -18.7% 38% 38% -8.4%
≤30d 1312 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 55% -10.8%
≤90d 1312 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 55% -10.8%
all 1312 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 55% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 55% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 51% -19.4%
15% -28.0% 33% -27.2%
20% -35.1% 22% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses724 / 588
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1312 / 1347
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day272.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1312 Trades
no open positions (493 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +148%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +242%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$10 +121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.33 · official $13.33 (match) · 3500 history records