Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf83…bf68 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$6
world 36% +$2
politics 8% $0
economics 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 49 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.62 per $1 lost it wins $5.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage450d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 85¢ 88¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $41 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Dec 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 08 $23 +$2 +10%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 02 $23 $0 -1%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 29 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $21 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $22 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $20 25m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $34 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $2 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $22 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $37 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $23 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $23 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.73 · official $19.73 (match) · 140 history records