Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf83…da82 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+19%) realized +$90 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$171
14 days+$171
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$15
sports 44% +$211
world 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +34.7% +21.9% 50% 50% +14.6%
≤30d 16 +34.7% +21.9% 50% 50% +14.6%
≤90d 17 +26.8% +14.7% 47% 47% +12.8%
all 20 +24.4% +12.5% 50% 45% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 45% +11.7%
10% +1.8% 45% +1.1%
15% -8.1% 45% -8.7%
20% -17.1% 45% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$32 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage106d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 100¢ $25 $59 +$34 (+138%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+64%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 12¢ 14¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$96 +373%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $26 +$34 +132%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 +$207 +123%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $169 −$168 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$36 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 +$31 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$21 +140%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$22 +86%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$28 +288%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $7 +$6 +93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $19 +$2 +10%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 02 $10 −$7 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 12¢ $26 32m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 97¢ $121 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 20¢ $26 3h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 19¢ $33 3h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 3h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $26 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $205 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 71¢ $170 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $168 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 30h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $26 31h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $10 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $15 41h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $25 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $36 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $62 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $31 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $17 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 52¢ $9 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $15 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 25¢ $11 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 41¢ $15 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 12¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $41 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $25 2d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.86 · official $136.77 · 42 history records