Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf7b…1659 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,567 (+1%) realized +$1,567 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 102L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$863per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$89
politics 31% −$23
sports 14% +$1,508
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% −$6
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 +1.5% -8.2% 7% 1% -8.2%
all 133 +6.4% -3.7% 23% 15% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 15% -8.3%
10% -12.9% 14% -17.1%
15% -21.3% 13% -25.1%
20% -29.1% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,216) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$5 · ×12.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized+$1,567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage155d
Avg bet$863
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $559 $559 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $932 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5,273 −$6 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $360 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,839 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,378 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $650 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $969 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $2,072 −$3 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,845 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3,289 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $819 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $317 −$6 -2%
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Apr 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,992 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $840 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $873 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,156 −$21 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $845 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,361 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,384 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $391 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $392 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $559 27h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $930 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $932 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $875 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $876 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $899 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $900 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $793 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $794 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $701 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $702 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $645 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $646 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $900 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $902 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $988 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $990 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $896 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $897 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $795 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $796 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $808 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $809 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $810 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $811 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $312 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $312 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $410 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.54 · official $558.54 (match) · 411 history records