Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf7b…f70b
crypto · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage21d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$18
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 26? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 26? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$7 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$38
weather 8% −$15
culture 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -47.0% -52.1% 33% 22% -45.0%
≤30d 47 -34.8% -41.0% 40% 34% -35.9%
≤90d 47 -34.8% -41.0% 40% 34% -35.9%
all 47 -34.8% -41.0% 40% 34% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 34% -35.9%
10% -46.6% 28% -42.0%
15% -51.8% 23% -47.6%
20% -56.5% 17% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 84 history records