Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf7a…3410 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$82 (+5%) realized +$44 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$72
sports 10% −$41
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +27.2% +15.1% 70% 70% -19.0%
≤30d 43 +27.2% +15.1% 70% 70% -19.0%
≤90d 43 +27.2% +15.1% 70% 70% -19.0%
all 43 +27.2% +15.1% 70% 70% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 70% -19.0%
10% +4.1% 60% -26.8%
15% -6.0% 49% -33.9%
20% -15.2% 35% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$33 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $449 $487 +$38 (+8%)
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $273 −$236 -86%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $216 −$109 -50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $18 +$14 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $126 +$15 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$113 +74%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $91 +$27 +30%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$5 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +39%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $4 +$6 +135%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$6 +474%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +120%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$6 +414%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$8 +106%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 12m
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL No 29¢ $18 13m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 1h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 31¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $173 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $5 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $20 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $15 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $253 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $12 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 48¢ $104 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $30 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $50 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $50 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $50 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $10 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $12 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $10 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $1 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $66 27h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.39 · official $517.46 (match) · 105 history records