Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf7a…0c40 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,712 (-15%) realized −$2,707 · open −$3,005
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$718per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$22,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,732
7 days−$3,964
14 days−$2,702
30 days−$2,702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$7,342
crypto 9% −$237
sports 4% +$612
world 2% +$1,260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -61.9% -65.5% 18% 9% -53.5%
≤30d 15 -27.7% -34.6% 33% 27% -36.2%
≤90d 15 -27.7% -34.6% 33% 27% -36.2%
all 15 -27.7% -34.6% 33% 27% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 27% -36.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 27% -42.3%
15% -46.6% 27% -47.9%
20% -51.8% 20% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$482 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$22,588
Realized−$2,707
Unrealized−$3,005
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions39
Markets (closed)15 / 54
History coverage12d
Avg bet$718
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,534 $3,340 −$194 (-5%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $2,473 $2,427 −$46 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $2,310 $2,296 −$13 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 34¢ $1,398 $1,303 −$95 (-7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 68¢ $1,526 $1,244 −$282 (-18%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $1,143 $1,193 +$50 (+4%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 36¢ $2,688 $1,112 −$1,576 (-59%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,032 $1,030 −$2 (-0%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $933 $950 +$17 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $783 $788 +$4 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 80¢ $673 $737 +$64 (+9%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 62¢ $480 $726 +$246 (+51%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 24¢ $1,319 $704 −$616 (-47%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $595 $612 +$18 (+3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 24¢ $492 $502 +$11 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 72¢ $414 $406 −$8 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $231 $382 +$151 (+65%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 34¢ $348 $375 +$27 (+8%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 18¢ $416 $364 −$52 (-12%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $348 $345 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 68¢ $306 $333 +$27 (+9%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $210 $236 +$26 (+12%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 38¢ $224 $210 −$14 (-6%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 14¢ 14¢ $183 $177 −$7 (-4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $148 $153 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $2,221 −$2,219 -100%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $118 −$118 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 22 $232 −$232 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $900 −$900 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1,169 −$1,169 -100%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,825 +$175 +6%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $547 +$623 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 15 $61 −$60 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $360 +$720 +200%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $460 +$540 +117%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $129 +$62 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $197 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $144 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,530 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 10¢ $46 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $141 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes $15 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $148 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $142 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $139 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $37 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 23¢ $503 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $28 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $144 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $425 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $21 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $227 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 9h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $310 25h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $18 26h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $14 26h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $10 26h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $278 26h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 97¢ $2,221 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $385 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $509 27h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes $40 28h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $14 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,587.88 · official $22,576.07 (match) · 147 history records