Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf78…c915 weather 468 markets active 2d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-3%) realized −$439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate80%375W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$95
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$470
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -14.7% -22.9% 65% 13% -17.5%
≤30d 176 -11.3% -19.8% 80% 18% -18.4%
≤90d 468 -7.9% -16.7% 80% 18% -12.6%
all 468 -7.9% -16.7% 80% 18% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 18% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 4% -21.0%
15% -31.9% 2% -28.6%
20% -38.6% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses375 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)468 / 468
History coverage54d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 468 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$16 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$20 +388%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 09 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$11 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$7 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2374 history records