Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf78…6d09 sports 157 markets active 1d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$420 (+8%) realized +$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%63W / 94L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$457
other 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.2% -16.0% 43% 36% -28.0%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.0% 43% 36% -28.0%
≤90d 16 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 31% -34.5%
all 157 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 39% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 39% -1.6%
10% -21.4% 38% -11.0%
15% -29.0% 34% -19.6%
20% -36.0% 29% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$24 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses63 / 94
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage137d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +63%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -55%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$4 +93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$9 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 08 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 05 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 05 $131 −$25 -19%
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Feb 05 $84 −$11 -13%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 05 $48 +$10 +20%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $141 −$103 -73%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Feb 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Game Handicap: DCG (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) Feb 05 $38 +$10 +26%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 05 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5) Feb 05 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs P11 Esports - Game 3 Winner Feb 05 $4 +$6 +150%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs P11 Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 05 $4 +$6 +150%
LoL: Solary vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Group Feb 05 $5 +$17 +334%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Group Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs P11 Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Andromeda Gaming vs CITA Kaizen - Game 2 Winner Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Andromeda Gaming vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Group St Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $139 +$48 +34%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Feb 04 $6 +$4 +71%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Feb 04 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Feb 04 $50 +$57 +113%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 3 Winner Feb 04 $13 −$10 -78%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Feb 04 $40 −$11 -27%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Feb 04 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner Feb 04 $20 +$8 +43%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Feb 04 $16 +$4 +23%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner Feb 04 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Play-In Feb 04 $4 −$2 -49%
LoL: eSuba vs Priority (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stage Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: ZennIT vs Senshi Esports Club (BO3) - Road Of Legends Tier 1 Grou Feb 03 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Team Paradox vs Team Insidious (BO2) - HLL Regular Season Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Comedy Central Winter S Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: SPAXFAMILY vs EXILE esports (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stage Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $5 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $3 34h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 15¢ $1 34h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $5 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 35¢ $5 45h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $12 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $8 45h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 39¢ $5 45h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $5 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 47h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $8 47h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 47h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 51¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $18 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $4 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 71¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 72¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $9 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 15¢ $4 67d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $5 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 433 history records