Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf77…95ed sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+5%) realized +$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day50.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$9
other 11% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 37% -4.5%
≤30d 30 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 37% -4.5%
≤90d 30 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 37% -4.5%
all 30 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 37% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 37% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 27% -13.6%
15% -28.2% 20% -21.9%
20% -35.3% 13% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $597 +$18 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$33 +82%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $6 $0 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$20 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$10 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$13 +51%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $149 +$4 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$12 -31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $117 +$7 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 +$4 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $72 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $10 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $4 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $18 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $30 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $22 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 55m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $79 55m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $81 55m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $80 56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $20 56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 57m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $15 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $6 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $8 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $82 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $80 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $82 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $80 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $84 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $81 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $82 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $81 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $43 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $17 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $14 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $11 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records