Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf70…e3e1 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%68W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day68.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 54% -13.1%
≤30d 97 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 54% -13.1%
≤90d 97 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 54% -13.1%
all 97 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 54% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 54% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 22% -21.4%
15% -30.0% 10% -29.0%
20% -36.9% 7% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses68 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day68.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records