Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf6f…9f0a other 9 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$728 (+22%) realized +$727 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$214
sports 44% +$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.4% +12.6% 88% 75% +11.7%
≤30d 8 +24.4% +12.6% 88% 75% +11.7%
≤90d 8 +24.4% +12.6% 88% 75% +11.7%
all 8 +24.4% +12.6% 88% 75% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 75% +11.7%
10% +1.8% 50% +1.0%
15% -8.0% 38% -8.8%
20% -17.1% 38% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$15 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.1 per $1 lost it wins $49.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$727
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $167 +$22 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $83 +$84 +101%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $53 +$31 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $933 +$19 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $797 +$135 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $641 +$155 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $360 +$281 +78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $189 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $167 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $167 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $83 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $952 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $933 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $932 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $797 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $641 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $641 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $300 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $59 33h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.19 · official $189.20 (match) · 18 history records