Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf6e…003f sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 555d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$40 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$40
sports 40% −$101
crypto 15% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 67% -2.9%
≤30d 4 +27.5% +15.4% 75% 75% +11.5%
≤90d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 60% 60% -7.1%
all 6 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 50% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 50% -17.4%
10% -30.4% 17% -25.3%
15% -37.2% 17% -32.6%
20% -43.3% 17% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$62 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage555d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 22¢ 34¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $142 +$28 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $153 −$11 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Fury beat Usyk? Dec 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 22¢ $20 47m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 47m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $142 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $147 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 12d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 30d
Will Fury beat Usyk? BUY Yes 39¢ $75 555d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.45 · official $29.55 (match) · 14 history records