Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf6d…f13b other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$319 (+5%) realized +$223 · open +$96
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate60%41W / 27L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$359
crypto 2% −$9
sports 1% +$10
finance 1% −$48
world 1% +$1
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.9% -31.1% 56% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 18 -28.3% -35.1% 50% 22% -13.4%
≤90d 68 -5.4% -14.4% 60% 32% -4.2%
all 68 -5.4% -14.4% 60% 32% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 32% -4.2%
10% -22.6% 25% -13.4%
15% -30.1% 19% -21.7%
20% -36.9% 7% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,790
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)68 / 80
History coverage76d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 89¢ 96¢ $624 $675 +$51 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No 86¢ 96¢ $358 $398 +$41 (+11%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $282 $277 −$5 (-2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $197 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+3%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 84¢ $90 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Will Raphinha record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No $1 $6 +$6 (+883%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 +$9 +36%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $189 +$6 +3%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $18 −$10 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -99%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 14 $188 +$14 +8%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "In Bloom" by Lilas Ikuta (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win B Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Apocalypse Hotel" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyrol Jun 02 $5 +$1 +31%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $5 +$7 +134%
Will "100 Meters" win Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime A Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $27 $0 -2%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Racing de Santander achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for May 17 $596 +$5 +1%
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Czechia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $265 +$118 +44%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 −$10 -39%
Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $17 +$20 +123%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $43 +$3 +7%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 +$18 +17%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $441 +$29 +7%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Armenia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$7 +49%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $605 +$7 +1%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 10 $286 +$40 +14%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $7 −$5 -65%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 10 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 09 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 1h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $94 1h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $125 2h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $19 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $11 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $135 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 3h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $22 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Raphinha record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $26 4h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $44 4h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 4h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $39 4h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 4h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,789.98 · official $1,789.98 (match) · 300 history records