Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf6d…65a7
crypto · 356 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$57 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses194 / 161
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)355 / 356
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 355 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$24
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 31¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$52
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 29% -13.2%
≤30d 343 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 31% -13.7%
≤90d 355 -9.9% -18.4% 55% 30% -15.5%
all 355 -9.9% -18.4% 55% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 30% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 15% -23.6%
15% -33.4% 9% -30.9%
20% -39.9% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $4.49 · 1290 history records