Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AF 0xaf69…3484 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$586 (+54%) realized +$586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +61.9% +46.5% 75% 50% -10.8%
≤30d 4 +61.9% +46.5% 75% 50% -10.8%
≤90d 4 +61.9% +46.5% 75% 50% -10.8%
all 4 +61.9% +46.5% 75% 50% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.5% 50% -10.8%
10% +32.5% 50% -19.4%
15% +19.7% 50% -27.1%
20% +7.9% 50% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$600 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $82 +$6 +7%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $606 −$600 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $305 +$347 +114%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$231 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $88 41m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $606 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 20h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records