Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf69…04a0 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$274 (+8%) realized +$238 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$533
sports 9% −$37
world 7% −$161
crypto 6% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -4.8%
≤30d 51 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -4.8%
≤90d 51 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -4.8%
all 51 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 33% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -13.9%
15% -31.0% 25% -22.2%
20% -37.7% 24% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$34 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage4d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 29¢ $50 $132 +$82 (+164%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $50 $103 +$53 (+106%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$73 +142%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$6 -11%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$40 -77%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$7 -14%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$6 -11%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 +$150 +292%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$11 -21%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$201 +393%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$36 -35%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$49 +94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $51 −$48 -94%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$43 +83%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 +$201 +392%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $404 +$132 +33%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $102 +$18 +17%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$18 -34%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $154 +$22 +14%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$41 -80%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -76%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$33 -33%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$30 -58%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $152 +$64 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 +$106 +205%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 +$31 +61%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 +$112 +219%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 −$18 -35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $82 −$47 -58%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 +$26 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$15 -72%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 38¢ $124 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $46 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 14¢ $45 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 41¢ $201 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 10¢ $41 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 71¢ $253 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 8¢ $66 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 18¢ $100 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 25¢ $94 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.77 · official $236.07 (match) · 93 history records