Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf68…e9a7 politics 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,390 (+37%) realized +$5,351 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$1,550
other 1% +$37
sports 0% −$10
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +144.7% +121.4% 36% 36% -28.3%
≤30d 24 +81.0% +63.8% 42% 33% -26.5%
≤90d 39 +53.1% +38.5% 49% 33% -25.4%
all 39 +53.1% +38.5% 49% 33% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.5% 33% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here +25.2% 21% -32.5%
15% +13.1% 15% -39.0%
20% +2.0% 15% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +96% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$127 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,682
Realized+$5,351
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions31
Markets (closed)39 / 68
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$215
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $433 $447 +$15 (+3%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $265 $366 +$101 (+38%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $357 $356 −$1 (-0%)
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $259 $160 −$99 (-38%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+13%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $59 +$13 (+28%)
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $37 $24 −$14 (-36%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 15¢ 20¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 20¢ 36¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+76%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 38¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 38¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will France pass a national budget by December 31? No 48¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 19¢ 37¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+95%)
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,873 −$196 -10%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $799 −$752 -94%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $689 −$257 -37%
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia Jun 20 $282 +$83 +30%
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pr Jun 19 $26 +$7 +28%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $237 +$623 +263%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $763 −$92 -12%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $42 +$68 +163%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $4 +$95 +2415%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $481 −$106 -22%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,058 −$466 -44%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,756 −$651 -37%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e Jun 11 $127 +$19 +15%
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 10 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia Jun 10 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti Jun 08 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e Jun 08 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia Jun 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presid May 26 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French president May 23 $189 +$37 +20%
Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presid May 22 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French president May 22 $87 +$6 +7%
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti May 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presi May 07 $126 +$3 +3%
Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential May 07 $0 $0 -4%
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? May 06 $15 +$33 +218%
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Apr 28 $11 +$2 +14%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 08 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25m
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $809 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,681.74 · official $1,681.04 (match) · 3500 history records