Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf68…0b54 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1
politics 21% +$11
world 13% $0
crypto 9% +$3
culture 7% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 37 +52.4% +37.9% 38% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.9% 5% -8.8%
10% +24.7% 3% -17.5%
15% +12.7% 3% -25.5%
20% +1.6% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +100% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×14.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.62 per $1 lost it wins $18.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage396d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $2 +$12 +489%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? Jun 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 09 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump apologize to Elon by Monday? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 30 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the new Pope tweet from his personal account this month? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 25 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 23 $4 +$1 +20%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 22 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 4m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $19 4m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $7 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $24 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $31 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 23d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 355d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 355d
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 368d
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 369d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 369d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 370d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $18 370d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $6 370d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $23 370d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 370d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 370d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $3 370d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $16 370d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $4 370d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $23 371d
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $23 371d
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $23 371d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $22 371d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records