Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf66…9e5c
crypto · 152 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses85 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$29
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 39% -20.3%
≤30d 151 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 39% -20.3%
≤90d 151 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 39% -20.3%
all 151 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 39% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 39% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 29% -28.0%
15% -36.2% 23% -34.9%
20% -42.5% 14% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.71 · official $3.71 (match) · 272 history records