Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf64…bf7d finance 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$296 (-5%) realized −$296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$463
14 days−$446
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% −$446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.3% -17.9% 20% 20% -20.5%
≤30d 9 -3.2% -12.5% 33% 22% -19.3%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.5% 33% 22% -19.3%
all 9 -3.2% -12.5% 33% 22% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 22% -19.3%
10% -20.8% 0% -27.1%
15% -28.5% 0% -34.1%
20% -35.5% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$80 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Up 40¢ 40¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$14 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $335 −$140 -42%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $980 −$24 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $456 −$20 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,957 −$292 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $85 +$13 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $81 −$2 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$7 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 41¢ $52 5m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 39¢ $23 7m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 39¢ $176 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 39¢ $54 15m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 39¢ $53 15m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 38¢ $51 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 37¢ $23 20m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 37¢ $3 21m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 37¢ $1 22m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 37¢ $3 24m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 36¢ $116 25m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 37¢ $134 25m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 43¢ $45 30m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 27¢ $4 44m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 27¢ $35 50m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 25¢ $35 51m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 25¢ $33 52m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 25¢ $33 55m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 24¢ $33 56m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 24¢ $32 57m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 24¢ $89 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 28¢ $39 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 31¢ $41 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 30¢ $39 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 74¢ $71 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 74¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 74¢ $165 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 67¢ $52 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 67¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 62¢ $80 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.02 · official $75.02 (match) · 246 history records