Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xaf63…1375 crypto 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,679 (+1%) realized +$2,781 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%223W / 11L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$538
14 days+$927
30 days+$2,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$494
world 18% +$1,633
other 13% +$1,419
politics 0% +$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 10% -6.8%
≤30d 42 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 2% -7.2%
≤90d 175 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -8.9%
all 234 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -8.8%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$287 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$5,125
Realized+$2,781
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses223 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)234 / 245
History coverage254d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,196 $3,213 +$17 (+1%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 99¢ 97¢ $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $450 $452 +$2 (+1%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 52¢ $232 $131 −$101 (-44%)
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 93¢ 96¢ $104 $108 +$4 (+4%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 94¢ 95¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 89¢ 92¢ $89 $92 +$3 (+4%)
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 99¢ 89¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $262 +$19 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,895 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,594 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,000 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,551 +$249 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,357 +$208 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $4,128 +$34 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2,973 +$27 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $285 +$28 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,569 +$25 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $338 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $4,543 +$28 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $4,940 +$60 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,989 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $391 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,996 +$8 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,977 +$163 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,137 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,138 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $464 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,132 +$11 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $5,331 +$61 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $727 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,470 +$30 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $80 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,100 +$443 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,380 +$10 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,140 +$360 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $679 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $642 +$25 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $89 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1,892 +$58 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,341 +$8 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $4,600 +$172 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $1,334 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $701 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $600 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $703 +$14 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $4,456 +$59 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $3,196 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $225 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,771 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $281 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $262 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $451 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $588 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $409 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $898 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,594 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $208 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $892 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $896 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $877 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $923 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,551 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,296 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $153 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $814 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,673 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,124.70 · official $5,124.70 (match) · 954 history records