Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf5f…2184
crypto · 1947 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$402 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$424 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$474
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses893 / 1050
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions49
Markets (closed)1943 / 1947
History coverage93d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 49 History 1943 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$903
7 days−$163
14 days+$111
30 days+$1,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Los Angeles Thieves 61¢ 100¢ $30 $50 +$19 (+64%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 74¢ 82¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+11%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 71¢ $37 $36 −$2 (-4%)
Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5) Kjaer 60¢ 67¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 47¢ 50¢ $24 $25 +$2 (+6%)
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5) Mochizuki 57¢ 48¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-16%)
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 69¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5 Over 40¢ 96¢ $7 $16 +$9 (+139%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jaime Faria 80¢ 78¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Young Ninjas 24¢ 24¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 46¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Walczaki 48¢ 47¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Virtus.pro 63¢ 58¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 45¢ 40¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) MARKandLARRY 42¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 73¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Over 37¢ 34¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will FC Universitario win on 2026-05-09? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 29¢ 53¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+83%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 49¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Spread: Odds BK (-2.5) Odds BK 16¢ 46¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+188%)
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Victoria Milovanova 53¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Marsborne 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Hawks Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$1,993
crypto 35% −$1,109
other 16% +$648
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 45¢ $11 6m
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 37¢ $9 16m
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman BUY Victoria Milovanova 53¢ $6 19m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 47¢ $12 48m
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 19¢ $3 48m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 47¢ $12 48m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $6 48m
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 19¢ $3 49m
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 24¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 33¢ $5 53m
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy - Map 2 Winne BUY Bushido Wildcats 73¢ $4 54m
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy - Map 1 Winne BUY Bushido Wildcats 69¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 48¢ $12 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 71¢ $4 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $12 1h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 26¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 24¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 24¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 24¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 24¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 26¢ $2 2h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5) BUY Mochizuki 57¢ $29 2h
Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5) BUY Kjaer 60¢ $30 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 4h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 21¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 46¢ $12 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 5h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 21¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 43% -13.5%
≤30d 447 +2.2% -7.5% 45% 45% +5.7%
≤90d 1368 -2.3% -11.6% 46% 44% -1.5%
all 1943 -3.1% -12.4% 46% 44% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 44% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -15.7%
15% -28.4% 40% -23.8%
20% -35.4% 38% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.57 · official $473.57 (match) · 3500 history records