Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf5c…6ed6 world 27 markets active 3h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2
sports 11% $0
finance 10% $0
other 8% +$2
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 44% 22% -10.5%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 18% -10.3%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 18% -10.3%
all 27 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 11% -9.5%
10% -15.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -23.4% 4% -26.1%
20% -30.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage465d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $15 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $10 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $39 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $31 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records