Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf59…1064 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$697 (+11%) realized +$249 · open +$448
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$5,901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$625
other 23% −$141
sports 16% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +87.4% +69.6% 25% 25% +72.9%
≤30d 9 +16.5% +5.4% 33% 33% +7.1%
≤90d 9 +16.5% +5.4% 33% 33% +7.1%
all 9 +16.5% +5.4% 33% 33% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 33% +7.1%
10% -4.7% 22% -3.1%
15% -13.9% 22% -12.5%
20% -22.3% 22% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$59 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$5,901
Realized+$249
Unrealized+$448
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions13
Markets (closed)9 / 22
History coverage21d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,773 $4,276 +$503 (+13%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $469 $410 −$59 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $111 $92 −$18 (-17%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$333 +650%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $331 +$59 +18%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $199 −$100 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $158 +$127 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $114 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 22h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 22h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 22h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 22h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,982 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $388 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $390 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $368 11d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 87¢ $109 11d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 10¢ $103 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $331 11d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 77¢ $97 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,900.69 · official $5,901.14 (match) · 59 history records