Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf52…14c5 crypto 466 markets active 3d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,751 (-22%) realized −$1,751 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%113W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$287
14 days−$1,736
30 days−$1,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,936
other 5% −$246
sports 1% −$39
politics 0% −$16
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.9% -7.8% 27% 24% -48.3%
≤30d 327 -33.3% -39.7% 24% 22% -46.8%
≤90d 466 -25.7% -32.7% 24% 22% -35.1%
all 466 -25.7% -32.7% 24% 22% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 22% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 20% -41.3%
15% -45.1% 18% -47.0%
20% -50.4% 16% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,751
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses113 / 353
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)466 / 466
History coverage62d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 466 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$9 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +84%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$12 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $69 −$61 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$37 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$73 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$15 +53%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $161 −$103 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $39 −$17 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2211 history records