Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf51…3ffd sports 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%13W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
other 24% −$2
politics 20% −$3
crypto 7% −$1
world 7% +$1
culture 6% −$1
economics 6% −$2
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 195 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses13 / 182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage167d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $38 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 18 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $388 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 09 $35 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $37 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $38 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $29 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 88¢ $27 34d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 91¢ $28 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $35 86d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $35 86d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $35 86d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $36 86d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $33 86d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $33 87d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 87d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 87d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $25 87d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $25 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $26 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $26 87d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $37 87d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $37 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $32 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $32 88d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 88d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $38 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $38 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $30 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $30 89d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.15 · official $31.15 (match) · 722 history records