Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf51…1d82 crypto 470 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%460W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$9
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$36
other 6% −$102
world 3% +$9
weather 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 162 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 414 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 470 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses460 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)470 / 470
History coverage148d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 470 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 24, 6AM ET? Jun 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 23, 12PM ET? Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 23, 11AM ET? Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 23, 10AM ET? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 23, 9AM ET? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 23, 8AM ET? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 23, 7AM ET? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 23, 4AM ET? Jun 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 22, 12PM ET? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 22, 12PM ET? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 22, 11AM ET? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 22, 11AM ET? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 22, 7AM ET? Jun 22 $88 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 22, 6AM ET? Jun 22 $88 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 22, 5AM ET? Jun 22 $88 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 21, 11PM ET? Jun 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $87 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 21, 11AM ET? Jun 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 16, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $76 +$1 +2%
Ethereum above 1,860 on June 16, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 16, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $53 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 16, 4AM ET? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 16, 4AM ET? Jun 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 16, 2AM ET? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 16, 2AM ET? Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,810 on June 16, 12AM ET? Jun 16 $74 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 24, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 23, 12PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $79 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $2 19h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 23, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 19h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 23, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 23, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19h
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 23, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 20h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 23, 9AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $89 21h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 23, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $89 22h
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 23, 7AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 23h
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 23, 4AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $87 27h
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 22, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 43h
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 22, 12PM ET? BUY No 99¢ $10 43h
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 22, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $2 43h
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 22, 11AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $68 43h
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 22, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 43h
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 22, 7AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $88 47h
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 22, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $88 2d
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 22, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $88 2d
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 21, 11PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $88 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $87 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 972 history records