Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf50…5abf crypto 117 markets active 1d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,406 (-11%) realized −$1,406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%37W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,977
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 28% -25.0%
≤30d 117 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 28% -25.0%
≤90d 117 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 28% -25.0%
all 117 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 28% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 28% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 28% -32.1%
15% -45.6% 26% -38.7%
20% -51.0% 26% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$83 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses37 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage6d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $223 −$215 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $79 −$40 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $155 +$150 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $141 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$38 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $203 +$309 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $84 −$57 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$93 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$55 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $88 +$62 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$44 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $280 −$269 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $331 +$81 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $308 −$149 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$260 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $193 −$185 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $275 +$318 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 411 history records