Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

AF 0xaf4e…e08f sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized −$52 · open +$67

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown72%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day7.2pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+3.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	60%	40%	+5.3%
≤30d	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	60%	40%	+5.3%
≤90d	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	60%	40%	+5.3%
all	5	+14.2%	+3.3%	60%	40%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.3%	40%	+5.3%
10%	-6.6%	40%	-4.8%
15%	-15.6%	40%	-14.0%
20%	-23.9%	40%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$28 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$169

Realized−$52

Unrealized+$67

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day7.2

Drawdown72%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	No	33¢	62¢	$50	$93	+$43 (+86%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Over	59¢	86¢	$52	$76	+$23 (+45%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	Jun 29	$51	−$4	-8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$82	+$61	+74%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational	Jun 29	$172	+$11	+6%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5	Jun 29	$51	−$51	-100%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5	Jun 28	$51	+$51	+99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$53	28m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	33¢	$52	29m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	61¢	$105	30m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$139	59m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	35¢	$47	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	36¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$82	4h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational	BUY Team Liquid	93¢	$172	15h
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	45¢	$51	32h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	49¢	$51	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.84 · official $167.33 (match) · 14 history records