Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf4d…77c6 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$647 (+21%) realized +$1,163 · open −$516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$536
sports 44% −$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +40.9% +27.5% 60% 60% +29.0%
≤30d 5 +40.9% +27.5% 60% 60% +29.0%
≤90d 5 +40.9% +27.5% 60% 60% +29.0%
all 5 +40.9% +27.5% 60% 60% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.5% 60% +29.0%
10% ← realistic here +15.3% 60% +16.7%
15% +4.2% 60% +5.4%
20% -6.0% 60% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$269 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,282
Realized+$1,163
Unrealized−$516
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions10
Markets (closed)5 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1,002 $852 −$150 (-15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 3¢ $440 $122 −$318 (-72%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $146 $110 −$36 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $93 $85 −$9 (-9%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 23¢ 24¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 79¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $289 −$289 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $251 −$249 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $374 +$737 +197%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $230 +$214 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $359 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $80 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 23¢ $41 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $76 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $196 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $0 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $0 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $3 3h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $78 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $47 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $79 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $48 5h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $305 14h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $194 15h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $230 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $374 26h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 27h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 27h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 27h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 27h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,281.78 · official $1,282.12 (match) · 67 history records