Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf4c…d5db sports 354 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$430 (+1%) realized +$266 · open +$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%226W / 104L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$116
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$19
sports 31% +$1,152
tech 5% −$109
world 4% −$91
finance 3% +$117
crypto 2% −$113
politics 2% −$597
economics 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -29.1% -35.9% 33% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 47 -6.7% -15.6% 70% 53% -16.1%
≤90d 248 -13.4% -21.6% 62% 46% -14.7%
all 330 -5.9% -14.9% 68% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 47% -9.2%
10% -23.0% 26% -17.9%
15% -30.5% 18% -25.8%
20% -37.3% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$58 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,443
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses226 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions22
Markets (closed)330 / 354
History coverage244d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 81¢ 94¢ $423 $486 +$63 (+15%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $151 $216 +$65 (+43%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $160 $169 +$9 (+6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 95¢ 93¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+25%)
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 91¢ $87 $84 −$3 (-4%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 85¢ 87¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 83¢ 86¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 42¢ $35 $21 −$14 (-40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 28¢ 57¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+105%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+54%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 7¢ 5¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $200 +$226 +113%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $109 −$109 -99%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $478 +$27 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,114 +$36 +3%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $140 +$40 +29%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $29 +$21 +70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $15 +$5 +33%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $88 +$12 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $19 −$18 -96%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $627 −$625 -100%
Will GIANTX win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 01 $82 +$10 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $275 −$90 -33%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $80 +$10 +13%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $77 +$13 +17%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $35 +$5 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $35 +$5 +16%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $33 +$7 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $9 +$1 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $16 +$4 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $22 +$8 +34%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $23 +$7 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 26 $68 +$32 +46%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $1,159 +$103 +9%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $286 +$54 +19%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $215 −$105 -49%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $503 −$35 -7%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $368 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $6 −$6 -95%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 26 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $50 +$10 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $44 +$16 +37%
Will Weibo Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? May 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $38 +$12 +32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $53 −$3 -5%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $34 +$6 +17%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Invictus Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? May 23 $449 +$8 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $89 +$11 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $43 +$17 +41%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $42 +$18 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $40 +$20 +50%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $51 +$9 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $8 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 27¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06 BUY 24¢ $10 43h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 85¢ $9 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 85¢ $15 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 85¢ $1 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $8 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $1 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 84¢ $42 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 7d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 7d
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $77 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 12d
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL No 99¢ $6 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $193 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $193 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,443.03 · official $1,463.32 · 1648 history records