Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf48…36c2 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,786 (+10%) realized +$21,403 · open +$2,383
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate88%22W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$8,932per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$40,880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$14,083
sports 9% +$10,360
world 4% +$2,652
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 88% 56% +1.0%
≤30d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 88% 56% +1.0%
≤90d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 88% 56% +1.0%
all 25 +9.2% -1.2% 88% 56% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 56% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 32% -8.6%
15% -19.3% 16% -17.5%
20% -27.2% 8% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$13,689) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,385 vs −$1,916 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$40,880
Realized+$21,403
Unrealized+$2,383
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses22 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8,932
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 96¢ 100¢ $24,680 $25,787 +$1,107 (+4%)
Jordan leading at halftime? No 94¢ 100¢ $11,468 $12,194 +$726 (+6%)
Algeria leading at halftime? No 81¢ 100¢ $2,349 $2,899 +$550 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan to win the second half? Jun 28 $9,076 +$2,323 +26%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1,988 +$365 +18%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 27 $13,555 +$830 +6%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 27 $10,936 +$2,652 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 27 $345 −$345 -100%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 27 $710 +$340 +48%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20,257 +$3,013 +15%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 26 $17,250 +$1,455 +8%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $4,285 +$2,442 +57%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $797 +$244 +31%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $19,459 +$841 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10,476 +$512 +5%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1,109 +$65 +6%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $1,182 +$217 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $99 +$138 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,375 −$5,375 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $2,946 +$714 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16,853 +$7,347 +44%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 24 $23,955 +$3,145 +13%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 24 $13,689 +$1,795 +13%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $14,744 +$956 +6%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $9,511 +$589 +6%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,236 +$164 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11,685 +$315 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $188 2h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $10,859 2h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $1 2h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $440 2h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? SELL No 100¢ $11,398 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $16,803 5h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $2,353 5h
Panama leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $14,385 5h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $3,767 18h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $9,323 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $1,239 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $2,857 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $3,812 19h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 81¢ $2,362 21h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $1,988 21h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $466 21h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? BUY No 81¢ $652 22h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? BUY No 79¢ $8,424 22h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $4,716 29h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $9,607 29h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $10,936 29h
Cabo Verde to win the second half? BUY No 67¢ $710 29h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $535 29h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $5,398 29h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $121 33h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $606 33h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $2,259 43h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $922 43h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $573 43h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $2,259 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,879.55 · official $40,879.55 (match) · 104 history records