Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf46…5f8b sports 1216 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$145 (+2%) realized +$158 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%636W / 569L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$79
14 days+$15
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$101
other 13% +$1
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% +$6
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +10.0% -0.5% 61% 61% +3.0%
≤30d 565 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 54% -5.8%
≤90d 1149 -4.8% -13.8% 51% 50% -13.1%
all 1205 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 52% -7.7%
10% -18.9% 51% -16.5%
15% -26.7% 46% -24.6%
20% -33.9% 41% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses636 / 569
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1205 / 1216
History coverage103d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Nikola Bartunkova 34¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+43%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 57¢ 34¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-42%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 79¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 49¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 68¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 297 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$2 -28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$4 +57%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $11 +$7 +66%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 +$5 +129%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +105%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$3 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$4 +119%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 79¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $3 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3 2h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 34¢ $4 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $3 8h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 74¢ $4 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $3 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 20h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $4 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $4 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $3 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 78¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.25 · official $30.25 (match) · 2454 history records