Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf46…8c1d
other · 215 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$6,027 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,445 · open −$418
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,872
Realized+$5,445
Unrealized−$418
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses172 / 389
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Open positions60
Markets (closed)561 / 215
History coverage34d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day95.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 60 History 561 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,071
7 days−$5,840
14 days−$4,016
30 days+$3,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $2,157 $2,355 +$198 (+9%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $700 $1,390 +$690 (+98%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $305 $305 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $288 $278 −$10 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $262 $263 +$1 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $240 $243 +$3 (+1%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $230 $231 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $103 $138 +$35 (+34%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $103 $112 +$10 (+10%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 14¢ $21 $95 +$75 (+364%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $21 $72 +$52 (+252%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $21 $72 +$52 (+252%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $21 $71 +$50 (+242%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $21 $63 +$42 (+204%)
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $66 $58 −$8 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $21 $49 +$29 (+140%)
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $21 $46 +$26 (+124%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+134%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $21 $33 +$12 (+58%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $150 $32 −$118 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 12 $856 −$244 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$85 -392%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$51 -206%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 12 $892 −$648 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$27 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $83 +$63 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a major Philippines earthquake and related tsunami alerts be the Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $24 +$5 +21%
2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +593%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in March 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$60 +500%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$97 -101%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Jun 12 $39 +$36 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Sunday? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 18–25? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -102%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$24 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $5 +$37 +746%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$64 -536%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$77 -128%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
2025 September third hottest on record? Jun 12 $720 −$717 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 12 $24 −$30 -122%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $0 $0 -273%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in March 2026? Jun 12 $23 +$700 +3020%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $388 −$363 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 12 $6 +$3 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Jun 12 $294 −$167 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $4 +$74 +1874%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 12 $92 −$38 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$369 +1337%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $73 −$55 -75%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Jun 12 $8 −$23 -298%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$11,298
politics 32% −$317
world 8% +$333
tech 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $240 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $205 43m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $758 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $751 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $219 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $296 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $77 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $201 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $71 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $72 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $43 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $18 3h
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+60.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 422 +79.5% +62.4% 24% 22% -27.4%
≤30d 533 +83.9% +66.4% 31% 25% -4.8%
≤90d 561 +77.5% +60.6% 31% 24% -3.5%
all 561 +77.5% +60.6% 31% 24% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover95.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +60.6% 24% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here +45.3% 21% -12.7%
15% +31.2% 19% -21.1%
20% +18.4% 19% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,872.45 · official $6,871.60 (match) · 3500 history records