Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf46…53bd other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 55L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$14
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1
world 24% −$9
sports 18% +$7
politics 13% −$3
economics 11% −$1
crypto 3% +$2
tech 1% $0
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 36 +2.5% -7.2% 44% 6% -9.5%
all 100 -0.8% -10.3% 45% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage460d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $90 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $187 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $255 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$10 -10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $61 −$6 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $89 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $85 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $215 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $79 +$8 +10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $55 −$4 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $45 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $83 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $83 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $484 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $5 +$3 +69%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $615 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $609 +$6 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $607 +$2 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $3 −$1 -58%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $21 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $73 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $67 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $81 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $73 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $10 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $30 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records