Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf42…fada crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$225 (-19%) realized −$220 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%47W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$124
sports 23% −$51
politics 9% −$100
tech 9% +$8
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 62% 12% -18.3%
≤30d 81 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 40% -32.3%
≤90d 81 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 40% -32.3%
all 81 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 40% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 40% -32.3%
10% -27.0% 26% -38.8%
15% -34.1% 22% -44.7%
20% -40.5% 12% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses47 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage26d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 84¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 Jun 27 $10 +$6 +58%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$2 -48%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $36 −$30 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 06 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $31 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 32m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 40m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 47m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $50 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $52 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $54 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $50 3h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 3h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 89¢ $109 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 75¢ $9 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.72 · official $57.75 (match) · 219 history records