Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf3e…2959 politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$5
other 22% $0
politics 19% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 18% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -10.5%
all 56 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage280d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $66 −$3 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $35 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $63 −$2 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $3 $0 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 26 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $3 $0 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $29 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records