Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf3e…dade sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$403 (-11%) realized −$403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$56
14 days−$51
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$423
other 13% −$240
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +14.1% +3.2% 41% 41% -17.9%
≤30d 104 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 41% -26.9%
≤90d 104 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 41% -26.9%
all 104 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 41% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 41% -26.9%
10% -19.7% 35% -33.9%
15% -27.4% 31% -40.3%
20% -34.6% 26% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 56
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage28d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$15 +47%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$7 -66%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$5 +78%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +220%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +188%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $38 +$13 +34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$31 +157%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $27 −$5 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $16 +$24 +151%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$12 -72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$33 +959%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$13 +84%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$18 +153%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $27 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $18 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$10 +71%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14 +$16 +112%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 +$3 +33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $3 +$8 +275%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $36 +$11 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $12 +$9 +72%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $62 −$48 -78%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $46 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $117 −$26 -22%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 95¢ $53 56m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $6 39h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $38 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.51 · official $5.51 (match) · 251 history records