Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf3e…b896 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$334 (-1%) realized −$329 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%96W / 65L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$102
14 days−$4,039
30 days−$4,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$146
politics 21% +$41
other 20% +$77
culture 18% −$62
economics 12% −$70
crypto 1% −$232
world 0% +$14
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -38.5%
≤30d 51 -71.1% -73.9% 25% 4% -69.8%
≤90d 93 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 20% -15.5%
all 161 -4.9% -14.0% 60% 40% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 40% -10.1%
10% -22.2% 30% -18.7%
15% -29.7% 20% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$65 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$1,148
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses96 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)161 / 171
History coverage264d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $597 $597 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $348 $345 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $144 $141 −$3 (-2%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $130 −$127 -98%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during t Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Knicks vs. Rockets Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Jun 09 $46 −$46 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Jun 09 $164 −$164 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns Jun 09 $252 −$252 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Jun 09 $208 −$208 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 09 $372 −$372 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Jun 09 $375 −$375 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5 Jun 09 $371 −$371 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Jun 09 $585 −$585 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Jun 09 $666 −$666 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $1,689 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $147 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $352 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $130 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,148.09 · official $1,148.09 (match) · 572 history records