Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf3e…6d66 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$17
other 26% −$31
sports 14% +$44
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +36.1% +23.2% 31% 28% -3.3%
≤30d 68 +29.7% +17.4% 34% 28% -8.9%
≤90d 68 +29.7% +17.4% 34% 28% -8.9%
all 68 +29.7% +17.4% 34% 28% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 28% -8.9%
10% +6.1% 25% -17.6%
15% -4.1% 24% -25.5%
20% -13.5% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)68 / 76
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$16 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$15 +705%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$6 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +252%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +302%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$17 +234%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$6 -49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$18 +1768%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.12 · official $16.12 (match) · 206 history records