Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf3d…e346 crypto 1725 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%1120W / 605L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day95.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$13
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -2.0% -11.3% 69% 69% -11.3%
≤30d 897 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 66% -13.1%
≤90d 1725 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 63% -12.3%
all 1725 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 63% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 63% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 27% -20.6%
15% -28.3% 5% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1120 / 605
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1725 / 1725
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day95.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1725 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records