Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf3c…ddd0
weather · 1016 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$583 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$495 · open −$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$790
Realized−$495
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses733 / 211
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions76
Markets (closed)944 / 1016
History coverage18d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 76 History 944 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$225
14 days−$1,140
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $235 $226 −$9 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $227 $198 −$29 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? No 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? No 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? No 77¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 81¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? No 87¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? No 65¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? No 76¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% −$491
other 2% −$48
economics 1% −$6
culture 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% −$8
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 86¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 45% -14.7%
≤30d 944 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 49% -11.7%
≤90d 944 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 49% -11.7%
all 944 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 49% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 49% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 28% -20.1%
15% -26.8% 16% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.32 · official $789.81 (match) · 3500 history records