Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf3b…9035 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$475 (-27%) realized −$520 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$479
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$435
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.0% +27.6% 50% 25% -32.5%
≤30d 21 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 33% -43.8%
≤90d 21 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 33% -43.8%
all 21 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 33% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 33% -43.8%
10% -41.8% 24% -49.2%
15% -47.5% 19% -54.1%
20% -52.6% 10% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$59 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage14d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bolszewo: Ivana Sebestova vs Khrystyna Vozniak Ivana Sebestova 85¢ 100¢ $150 $176 +$26 (+18%)
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Nicolas Kobelt 61¢ 58¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Izabela Heinzova Maja Pawelska 80¢ 91¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
ITF Klosters: Jan Kumstat vs Corentin Denolly Jan Kumstat 80¢ 97¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Nice: Manon Favier vs Julia Stusek Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 10 $14 +$51 +359%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Helena Stevic vs Mariya Yemshanova Jun 10 $27 +$1 +5%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mutsumi Uemura Jun 10 $16 +$2 +12%
ITF Los Angeles: Jack Satterfield vs Spencer Johnson Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $50 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $51 +$39 +76%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Nagi Hanatani vs Gaeul Jang Jun 09 $151 +$20 +13%
ITF Tokyo: Thasaporn Naklo vs Sae Noguchi Jun 09 $51 +$25 +50%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Bratislava: Norbert Gombos vs Jan Choinski Jun 08 $50 +$3 +5%
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 08 $151 +$72 +48%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $113 −$111 -99%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Gabriel Schenekenberg vs Tomas Jordi Leston Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Sumter: Bella Payne vs Ashton Bowers Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 71¢ $50 53m
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 63¢ $51 56m
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 52¢ $51 56m
ITF Klosters: Jan Kumstat vs Corentin Denolly BUY Jan Kumstat 80¢ $48 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Izabela Heinzova BUY Maja Pawelska 81¢ $50 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Izabela Heinzova BUY Maja Pawelska 79¢ $50 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Ivana Sebestova vs Khrystyna Vozniak BUY Ivana Sebestova 87¢ $50 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Ivana Sebestova vs Khrystyna Vozniak BUY Ivana Sebestova 84¢ $50 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Ivana Sebestova vs Khrystyna Vozniak BUY Ivana Sebestova 84¢ $50 1h
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 35¢ $36 6d
ITF Nice: Manon Favier vs Julia Stusek BUY Manon Favier 59¢ $51 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Helena Stevic vs Mariya Yemshanova BUY Helena Stevic 95¢ $27 7d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Elena Milovanovic BUY Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 21¢ $14 7d
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Eri Shimizu 89¢ $16 7d
ITF Los Angeles: Jack Satterfield vs Spencer Johnson BUY Jack Satterfield 20¢ $51 7d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Federico Bondioli 80¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 72¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 56¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 56¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 56¢ $51 7d
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $51 7d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 50¢ $51 7d
ITF Tokyo: Nagi Hanatani vs Gaeul Jang BUY Gaeul Jang 89¢ $50 8d
ITF Tokyo: Nagi Hanatani vs Gaeul Jang BUY Gaeul Jang 87¢ $50 8d
ITF Tokyo: Nagi Hanatani vs Gaeul Jang BUY Gaeul Jang 88¢ $50 8d
ITF Tokyo: Thasaporn Naklo vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 66¢ $51 8d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY VP.Prodigy 38¢ $51 8d
Bratislava: Norbert Gombos vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 95¢ $50 8d
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Shapovalov 67¢ $50 9d
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Shapovalov 67¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.19 · official $486.28 · 55 history records