Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf39…dc63 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-8%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$27
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$19
sports 44% −$62
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 41% +15.5%
≤30d 23 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 39% +12.7%
≤90d 54 -9.2% -17.8% 43% 39% -11.3%
all 58 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 38% -13.1%
10% -26.3% 36% -21.4%
15% -33.4% 31% -29.0%
20% -39.9% 24% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage99d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +194%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +272%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +106%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $52 −$52 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $30 −$27 -89%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $78 +$4 +5%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $40 −$35 -88%
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Club Puebla vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $12 +$14 +118%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 22 $95 +$24 +26%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 22 $25 −$19 -76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $86 +$23 +27%
Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Club Santos Laguna vs. Atlas FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $62 +$41 +66%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $18 +$43 +233%
Will CF Monterrey vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will CF América vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? Apr 13 $4 +$10 +257%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $6 +$3 +48%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $20 −$14 -71%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $140 −$92 -66%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $79 +$13 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records