Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf39…3101 other 244 markets active 1d ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 359d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98,021 (+7%) realized +$97,181 · open +$840
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate72%157W / 60L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$5,851per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$21,442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$491
14 days+$10,409
30 days+$3,275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$29,651
other 24% +$16,847
politics 21% +$20,862
economics 11% −$100
finance 7% +$15,197
tech 2% +$1,801
sports 0% +$1,291
weather 0% +$87
culture 0% −$403
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -30.6% -37.2% 42% 21% -9.2%
≤30d 47 -10.1% -18.7% 62% 36% -8.4%
≤90d 89 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 33% -7.0%
all 217 -0.3% -9.8% 72% 34% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 34% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 16% -13.2%
15% -26.3% 9% -21.6%
20% -33.5% 6% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$8,698) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$956 vs −$1,133 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$21,442
Realized+$97,181
Unrealized+$840
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses157 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions27
Markets (closed)217 / 244
History coverage360d ⚠
Avg bet$5,851
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 72¢ $7,468 $7,783 +$315 (+4%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $5,542 $5,348 −$194 (-4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 91¢ $1,975 $2,275 +$300 (+15%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $1,670 $1,906 +$236 (+14%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $1,203 $1,566 +$363 (+30%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $800 $825 +$25 (+3%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 56¢ $771 $540 −$231 (-30%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $385 $405 +$20 (+5%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $385 $372 −$12 (-3%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $149 $155 +$7 (+5%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 99¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 61¢ 90¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+48%)
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $634 +$47 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11,007 −$9,539 -87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25,757 +$9,243 +36%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $720 −$144 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13,000 +$672 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31,005 +$1,695 +6%
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,420 +$24 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,634 +$2,866 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9,125 +$445 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6,072 +$3,825 +63%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,237 +$2,763 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,423 −$1,210 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? Jun 21 $7 −$3 -45%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 21 $194 −$194 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8? Jun 21 $16 −$6 -39%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,551 −$1,551 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $2,296 −$2,296 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Jun 21 $1,741 −$1,741 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,465 +$535 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,433 −$3,400 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13,514 −$1,442 -11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11,801 +$4,199 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,706 −$968 -21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13,966 +$1,556 +11%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 19 $10,702 +$1,107 +10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $8,100 +$1,194 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,678 +$321 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,511 +$489 +32%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1,413 +$87 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,994 +$2,006 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $124 −$7 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $420 +$50 +12%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,045 +$455 +44%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $42,184 −$11,249 -27%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $9,384 +$159 +2%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $65 +$13 +20%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1,271 +$1,083 +85%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $2,612 +$255 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $1,544 +$231 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $17,742 +$1,577 +9%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $1,792 +$288 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $378 −$238 -63%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $18,232 +$1,740 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 12 $6 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,734 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $252 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $49 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $50 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $50 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,441.94 · official $21,442.72 (match) · 3500 history records