Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf38…0804 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,503 (-14%) realized −$1,505 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$1,873
sports 10% +$21
crypto 1% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.3% -9.2% 48% 41% -27.3%
≤30d 27 +0.3% -9.2% 48% 41% -27.3%
≤90d 27 +0.3% -9.2% 48% 41% -27.3%
all 27 +0.3% -9.2% 48% 41% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 41% -27.3%
10% -17.9% 33% -34.3%
15% -25.9% 33% -40.6%
20% -33.1% 26% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$203 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized−$1,505
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $701 $705 +$3 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$28 -55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $204 −$108 -53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$82 +160%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 +$125 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $412 +$239 +58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,406 −$1,271 -90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$179 -58%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,609 −$329 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $481 −$378 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $293 −$171 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$78 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$74 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$60 +58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$17 -17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,278 −$21 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $204 +$108 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $338 +$18 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $541 +$57 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$95 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$82 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -49%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $124 +$18 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$41 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $135 −$31 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $23 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $205 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $150 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $330 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $204 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $162 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $163 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $173 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $136 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $135 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $998 33h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $89 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $127 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $306 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 35h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $65 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.77 · official $902.77 (match) · 103 history records