Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf37…dafb other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+16%) realized +$152 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$188
sports 27% −$12
crypto 8% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.9% -11.3% 38% 30% +3.8%
≤30d 40 -1.9% -11.3% 38% 30% +3.8%
≤90d 49 +2.0% -7.7% 35% 29% +5.4%
all 49 +2.0% -7.7% 35% 29% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 29% +5.4%
10% -16.6% 24% -4.7%
15% -24.6% 22% -13.9%
20% -32.0% 20% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage75d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 67¢ 59¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$2 -42%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -25%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 +$29 +34%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 +$13 +97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$10 -42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -12%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$28 +138%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$69 -68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$13 +139%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$28 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$6 -39%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$21 +137%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$18 -71%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 +$21 +70%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$35 +340%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +169%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 +$112 +364%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 12 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 12 $12 −$9 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 06 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UC Sampdoria vs. Empoli FC end in a draw? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 +$86 +862%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $9 24h
Croatia to score first vs. England? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $39 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.10 · official $51.10 (match) · 107 history records