Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf36…e383 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,890 (-36%) realized −$1,889 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate86%37W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,755
politics 23% −$109
world 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 2% −$28
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -4.5% -13.6% 95% 5% -13.5%
all 43 -4.4% -13.5% 86% 16% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 16% -44.1%
10% -21.8% 9% -49.5%
15% -29.3% 5% -54.4%
20% -36.3% 5% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$318 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$1,889
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses37 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage203d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $275 $274 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 19 $304 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 16 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 11 $112 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May May 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, May 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $112 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 23 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 05 $100 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 11 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 06 $88 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 26 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 19 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 13 $35 $0 +1%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on January 28? Feb 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Blues vs. Avalanche Feb 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 05 $50 $0 +1%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 01 $33 −$33 -100%
76ers vs. Thunder Jan 01 $1 $0 +14%
Kings vs. Lakers Jan 01 $1 $0 +19%
Cardinals vs. Bengals Jan 01 $1 $0 +32%
Seahawks vs. Panthers Jan 01 $1 $0 +35%
Steelers vs. Browns Jan 01 $4 +$6 +170%
Chargers vs. Cowboys Dec 28 $1 +$1 +113%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 3 BUY No 100¢ $275 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 100¢ $304 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 8d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 21d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 97¢ $110 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 40d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $110 43d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 48d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May BUY No 100¢ $110 50d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, BUY No 100¢ $115 54d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 62d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April BUY No 99¢ $80 69d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April BUY No 100¢ $29 69d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 76d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 80d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 83d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $60 87d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 92d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 100¢ $52 100d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 102d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 104d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 109d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 118d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 124d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 BUY No 99¢ $51 128d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 98¢ $51 130d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $35 138d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $50 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.04 · official $274.04 (match) · 83 history records